Just How Bad Are The 5-Day Hurricane Forecasts? (to be updated daily)

Leonard Lenny Vasbinder

August 21, 2020

Updated August 22, 2020

Updated August 22, 2020, 8 p.m. 

Updated August 23, 2020, 8 p.m.

Updated August 24, 2020, 8 p.m.

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I've written many times over the years -- basically since Hurricane Katrina back in 2005 -- that the 5-day forecasts are almost always wrong (around 95% wrong).  The best place to go, based on the 5-day forecast, is to go to the place where they say it is going -- because it is NOT going there. :P 

Here is yesterday's 5-day forecast for TD13 (now upgraded to TS Laura) which had it close to the Florida west coast and heading towards the Pensacola-Destin area.  The next image is today's 5-day forecast for TS Laura which has it heading directly for New Orleans -- around 100 miles further west.

As of now, the best place to go is New Orleans -- well, except for the fact that New Orleans storm drainage SUCKS BIG-TIME and the streets flood when it barely sprinkles here. :P  

I know -- I live here.  

While these images are from my favorite weather website, Weather Underground, this is not to disparage them since they are merely putting up the images done by the national weather and hurricane center forecasters.

After just two days, or technically a day and a half from the first 5-day forecast on August 20, 2020, at 8 p.m., the latest 5-day forecast on August 22, 2020, at 11 a.m. shows TS Laura heading about 100 miles west of New Orleans, LA, even west of Morgan City, LA.  Two days ago, the 5-day forecast had the storm skirting the west coast of Florida and hitting the Florida panhandle between Pensacola and Destin.

Update - August 22, 2020, 8 p.m. -- 

You really can't make this up.  

For the past two days, I've been mainly writing about TD13-TS Laura because TD14-TS Marco was heading west of Houston and TS Laura was heading more towards New Orleans but even west of New Orleans as of earlier today.

As of the 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. updates, NOW BOTH storms are heading directly to New Orleans.  

Now, TS Marco is forecast to hit New Orleans on Monday, August 24, 2020, late p.m. and TS Laura is forecast to hit New Orleans on Wednesday, August 26, 2020, late p.m.

The forecasters should really be embarrassed about just how bad they have mucked these forecasts up!

Here is TS Marco's path as of 10 a.m. on August 22, 2020.  The next image is TS Marco's path as of 7 p.m. on August 22, 2020.

Update - August 23, 2020, 8 p.m.

Well, the good news for New Orleans is the forecasters and politicians were horribly wrong no matter how hard they fearmongered to the television audience.

From 8 p.m. on August 22, 2020, until now, you can see that TS Laura has moved a couple hundred more miles to the west. Instead of the above forecasted direct hit on New Orleans, TS Laura is now forecast to make landfall near the LA-TX border -- but it's still three days away so who knows how many more forecast changes will happen.

As far as TS Marco, while the politicians and weather news wanted it to also hit New Orleans -- makes for better ratings and a reason for pols to spend money -- TS Marco is heading further away from New Orleans also.

Update - August 24, 2020, 8 p.m. 

Well, TS Marco was a complete DUD!  At least as far as New Orleans and the LA Gulf Coast are concerned.  The FL panhandle did get a lot of rain and thunderstorms but there hasn't been hardly any rain in New Orleans today and not much wind either -- well, except for the wind from the blowhard politicians!  While Walmart and most other businesses remained open, the local governments shut down!  Why?  Because they still get paid whether they are open or self-shutdown.

Here is the August 24, 2020, 6 p.m. track for TS Marco.  It supposedly made "landfall" at the mouth of the Mississippi River as a tropical storm and is dying quickly but they forecasters are still trying to squeeze in one last gasp of fearmongering by having the Tropical Depression (winds less than 39 mph) head up towards the NOLA metro area.

TS Laura is supposed to turn into a Cat-1 hurricane by August 26, 2020, and then turn into a Cat-2 hurricane before making landfall on August 27, 2020, early a.m.  

We'll see!

I'll continue to update for the next couple of days but my closing below will likely stay the same.

In closing, you can see just how inaccurate even a 5-day forecast is, yet these same so-called experts and liberal-democrat politicians keep trying to predict the weather for decades and centuries from now -- and they'll likely be wrong about those predictions as well.