Let The Fun Begin -- Another Hurricane Season Of Bad Forecasts???

 

Editorial By: Leonard Lenny Vasbinder

June 17, 2021, 8:00 p.m. CST

Updated June 18, 2021, 8:00 p.m. CST

(To Be Updated Daily Until Gone)

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Here is my next poke at the weather forecasters, who think they can predict climate change going out 10, or 100, or 1,000 years but they almost never get the 5-day forecast correct for hurricanes.  Will they prove me wrong with this one?

Here is the current 3-day forecast for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. First, from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and second from Weather Underground (WU).  Usually, they have the same tracking info but the past couple of storms had WU giving their own tracking information since the NHC/NOAA has been so bad, especially this year with Gulf storms.  The third image down is from South Florida's computer model site, which has two of seven models coming to southeast Louisiana (New Orleans / Baton Rouge) but the other five models are going anywhere but the NOLA / BRLA area.

Normally, they start off with at least a 5-day forecast but this storm just popped up so there is only three days before it will make landfall (according to the forecast).

Updated June 18, 2021 8:00 p.m. CST -- 

So far, after 24 hours, the forecast track is pretty good although the track has moved to the east approximately 50 miles.  The storm has not intensified or died down and is still a weak tropical storm as the "eye" nears the coast of Louisiana south of Houma, then forecast track across Houma and crossing the western end of Lake Pontchartrain.  

The forecast 24 hours ago had the storm coming ashore southeast of Lafayette, then tracking to the west of Lake Maurepas.

The spaghetti models have tightened as well.

References:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane?index_region=at

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots